The automotive industry currently stands as one of the main pillars of the Polish economy, constituting 8% of GDP and approximately 13.5% of export value. The industry’s backbone is formed by parts suppliers, with Poland ranking 10th among the world’s largest exporters of components, boasting an export value of USD 12.3 billion. Moreover, in 2021, Poland produced 439,100 vehicles. Employment in the Polish automotive sector and related industries totals approximately 400,000 people, representing 7.6% of all individuals employed in the industry and positioning our country in third place within the European Union.
However, the automotive sector stands at the threshold of its most significant revolution yet, associated with the shift from internal combustion engines to electrified drives. The global acceleration of e-mobility development poses a considerable challenge for the entire supply chain and the economy of the European Union as a whole. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), by 2030, more than one in three cars sold globally will be equipped with electric drives.
Due to the planned amendment to Regulation 2019/631, starting from 2035, no new ICE passenger cars and delivery vans will be eligible for registration in any EU Member State. In the years ahead, manufacturers of conventional vehicles and their components will gradually diminish in importance, and supply chains will undergo significant restructuring. The industry’s transformation poses a considerable challenge, which, without appropriate remedial measures, could lead to a significant reduction in production, factory closures, mass layoffs, and consequently, negative consequences for the entire national economy. However, the emerging e-mobility market also presents numerous new opportunities for countries, companies, and institutions that take timely steps to strengthen their position in this area.
The F5A report titled “The Impact of E-Mobility on Economic Development in Poland” contains a forecast encompassing three variant scenarios for the contribution of the e-mobility sector to Poland’s GDP by 2050. The economic significance of this sector hinges on the level of involvement of public administration and other stakeholders in implementing measures favoring the transformation of the Polish automotive industry. Primarily, it is imperative to establish conditions conducive to attracting new investment projects in the e-mobility sector in Poland. This entails bolstering national competencies in research and development, ensuring access to a skilled workforce, and eliminating barriers hindering the automotive industry’s transformation. Additionally, comprehensive optimization of legislation and expansion of subsidies to stimulate the development of the domestic market for zero-emission transport, which serves as the primary outlet for e-mobility products for many companies, are crucial. The country’s production potential can be significantly augmented through various means, such as aligning the skills of secondary and higher education graduates more closely with employers’ expectations through increased collaboration between the education and business sectors or subsidized training programs.
Public administration can support innovation in the automotive industry by providing a dedicated funding source, such as a special purpose fund, offering fiscal incentives, implementing mechanisms to facilitate access to information on available subsidies, and ensuring effective coordination of the R&D program. To foster innovation and collaboration between the public and private sectors, it may be advantageous to establish a modern and specialized institution tasked with developing innovative solutions. Examples of such entities include the Czech Mobility Innovation Hub (MIH) or the ZalaZone complex in Hungary. Additionally, supporting the domestic e-mobility market is crucial to boosting demand for products like charging stations or zero-emission buses manufactured by Polish factories. Continuing programs like “My EV” or “Green Public Transport”, introducing regulations to eliminate main barriers to the development of a public charger network, and increasing investment in the expansion and modernization of electricity infrastructure are paramount in this regard.
According to the F5A report, depending on the scenario adopted, the projected share of e-mobility in Poland’s GDP in 2030 could range from 2% to almost 4%, while in 2050 it could range from nearly 3% to almost 6%. Whether Poland becomes a production hub for zero-emission vehicles and related components, or whether the importance of the automotive industry in the domestic economy systematically declines with the relocation of factories and investments in the e-mobility sector in other EU Member States, largely depends on the support instruments implemented.
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