The fleet of electric trucks in Poland may exceed 40,000 by 2030 – according to data provided by F5A for the latest edition of the PSPA report “Polish EV Outlook 2023”. To achieve such result, it is necessary to optimize the law, significantly accelerate the expansion of charging infrastructure and introduce an effective subsidy system.
Heavy road transport is one of the pillars of the Polish economy. Almost one million people are employed in the TSL industry in Poland, and its share in GDP is almost 6%. At the same time, the heavy transport sector is on the verge of the greatest transformation in its entire history, related to the European Union’s desire to decarbonize the economy. In 2019, the EU established the first-ever CO2 emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles under Regulation 2019/1242 of the European Parliament and of the Council. Based on the described regulations, the level of CO2 emission reduction from trucks is to be 30% by 2030.
– At the beginning of 2023, the European Commission proposed even more ambitious goals (45% emission reduction from 2030, 65% from 2035 and as much as 90% from 2040). The electrification of the truck fleet in Member States is also to be supported by instruments such as the super-credit system, motivating companies to sell zero-emission vehicles, the AFIR regulation setting binding goals in the field of charging infrastructure, or the planned Euro 7 standard (which, according to the EC assumptions, will reduce the overall NOx emissions from trucks and buses by 56% compared to Euro VI). As a consequence, the number of electric trucks in the EU will grow dynamically – says Jan Wiśniewski, Director of the PSPA Research and Analysis Center.
Poland is the leader of the heavy transport sector in the European Union (every fifth vehicle with a GVW above 3.5 t in the EU is registered in our country), however, the Polish fleet of electric trucks (eHDV) remains small – at the end of the first half of 2023, it consisted of only 66 vehicles. The main barrier to market development remains the degree of charging infrastructure expansion – of the almost 3.2 thousand public stations operating in Poland at the end of October 2023, not a single one was adapted to service electric trucks. Very high prices and the limited eHDV offer (at the end of the first half of 2023 in Poland included 26 model variants with a GVW of at least 4.25 t) are also obstacles. Limited ranges and an unfavorable TCO (total cost of ownership) balance also remain a problem.
Data prepared by F5A for the needs of “Polish EV Outlook 2023” report indicate a number of specific instruments, the introduction of which will lead to a significant increase in the registration of electric trucks. It is necessary, among others, to optimize the law in order to improve connection procedures for ultra-fast, high-power charging stations. Changes to the law should also include the exemption of electric trucks for driving on national roads, the exclusion of eHDVs with a GVW above 12 t from periodic restrictions and road traffic bans, or an increase in the permissible total weight limits of individual categories of electric trucks (necessary due to the curb weight of the batteries). In addition, tax issues are important, in particular the exemption of zero-emission trucks owners from transport tax. Subsidies from public funds are also necessary for the development of the market in the initial period. Such subsidies have already been introduced by 4 out of 5 EU Member States with the largest truck fleets. Poland is so far the only exception in this group. An effective subsidy system could cover N2 and N3 category vehicles, as well as public charging stations with a capacity of at least 250 kW.
– Based on the forecasts included in the “Polish EV Outlook”, the introduction of a comprehensive support system for buyers and users of electric trucks will allow for a very dynamic development of the eHDV market in the coming years. By 2025, the total number of zero-emission trucks registered in Poland will increase significantly compared to last year – to almost 4.1 thousand units. By 2030, the fleet of such vehicles may already number over 40.5 thousand units. Key stakeholders, led by public administration should be aware that creating appropriate conditions for fleet electrification is necessary, both due to legal and economic issues. On the one hand, the provisions of the EU AFIR regulation require that in less than 8 years, charging stations intended for eDHV will be operational along the Polish section of the TEN-T network with a total power of almost 580 MW (i.e. six times higher than the power of all public chargers in Poland at the end of 2022). On the other hand, the dynamic development of zero-emission heavy transport in other Member States and the ongoing electrification of the model offer mean that, if there is no sufficiently quick reaction, Polish carriers may be left with an aging combustion fleet and lose their leading position in the European road transport sector – says Maciej Mazur, Managing Director PSPA.
The most comprehensive analysis of the e-mobility sector in Poland
Besides the data developed by F5A regarding the eHDV sector, the content of “Polish EV Outlook 2023” also includes a comprehensive analysis of the market for electric passenger cars and commercial vehicles in Poland (BEV and PHEV) and a forecast of its development until 2040 (in three separate scenarios). The report also describes in detail the model offer in the e-mobility segment, as well as the latest legal regulations shaping the Polish e-mobility market. The content of “Polish EV Outlook 2023” also includes a forecast of the increase in energy demand related to the development of the EV fleet. Much space in “PEVO 2023” was devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the charging infrastructure network in Poland and forecasts for its expansion included in two variant scenarios.
More information about “Polish EV Outlook”, as well as the possibility of ordering the report, is available at:
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