In eight years, the number of newly registered battery-electric passenger cars and commercial vehicles in Poland will reach almost 170,000 units – according to data provided by F5A for the latest edition of the PSPA report “Polish EV Outlook”. This is over 10 times more than in 2022. The BEV market development forecasts for 2022 included in the previous edition of the PSPA report were almost 100% close to the actual result.
Data and analyzes developed by F5A for the first edition of “Polish EV Outlook 2023” report on over 300 pages present the current status and development forecasts of the Polish zero- and low-emission transport market. The study contains a set of knowledge about e-mobility, both national and local, unavailable in any other source.
The report confirms that despite the ongoing disruptions to supply chains in the automotive sector, the Polish e-mobility market is not slowing down. According to data from IBRM Samar, a content partner of “PEVO 2023”, at the end of 2022, the cumulative number of registrations of passenger cars and battery-electric commercial vehicles (BEV) in Poland was 33,866 units. This means that the fleet of such vehicles increased only within a year by over 80%, and from 2020 – almost 4 times. In 2022, 12,607 new BEVs were registered in Poland (i.e. 74% more than in 2021), as well as 2,783 imported vehicles of this type (+49% YoY). The “Polish EV Outlook 2023” shows that in the years 2014-2022, the share of cars in the sales of new passenger vehicles in Poland increased from 0.02% to 2.7%. However, this is still significantly less than the average in the European Union, which, according to ACEA, amounted to 12.1% at the end of 2022.
Which cities have the most electric cars?
E-mobility in Poland is still concentrated primarily in the largest urban centers. The first edition of “Polish EV Outlook 2023” shows that the largest number of battery-electric cars – almost 22% of the entire Polish fleet – were registered in Warsaw. In 2022, the capital city also accounted for over 21% of new BEV registrations in Poland. Approx. 26% of the Polish battery-electric car fleet was registered in cities with 300,000 to 1 million residents – Kraków, Łódź, Wrocław, Poznań, Gdańsk, Szczecin, Bydgoszcz and Lublin. The fleet in smaller urban centers, with a population of 150,000 to 300,000, constitutes 12% of the total number of BEVs in Poland. However, the share of cities with a population of 50,000 to 150,000 residents is approximately 5%.
– The largest number of BEVs per resident among Polish cities is in Warsaw – over 4. The next places are taken by Poznań, Katowice, Kraków and Opole. The lowest result (below 0.5) was recorded in Bytom, Chorzów, Dąbrowa Górnicza, Wałbrzych and Ruda Śląska. We also observe significant differences in the development of battery-electric car fleets at the voivodeship and poviat level. The Masovian Voivodeship accounted for 31% of all BEVs in Poland. Second place belongs to the Lesser Poland Voivodeship with a share of over 11%, and third place to the Greater Poland Voivodeship. At the opposite extreme are the Opole, Warmian-Masurian and Świętokrzyskie voivodeships. Their total share is only approximately 4.5% – says Jan Wiśniewski, Director of the PSPA Research and Analysis Center.
Who buys electric cars in Poland?
Companies are increasingly marking their share in the Polish e-mobility market. In 2022, entrepreneurs (not including natural persons running a business) were responsible for as many as 78% of the registration of new, battery-electric passenger cars on the Polish market. The share of companies turned out to be higher than in 2020-2021. The leaders in terms of the number of BEV registrations were lessors (almost 39% share) and car dealers.
– The high share of CFM (car fleet management) in the e-mobility market should not be surprising, considering the fact that leasing and long-term rental are particularly attractive forms of financing from the perspective of electric car buyers (they reduce, among other things, the risk associated with a decrease in the value of the vehicle). 26 leasing companies have already signed agreements with BOŚ Bank under the “My EV” program, which has a positive impact on the competitiveness of the offer for people intending to purchase a zero-emission vehicle with a subsidy – says Aleksander Rajch, PSPA Board Member.
Which electric cars do Poles choose?
The data provided by F5A for the “Polish EV Outlook 2023” also contains a set of detailed information about the BEV offer available on the Polish market. Based on “PEVO 2023”, Poles can choose from 107 models of battery-electric cars (82 passenger cars and 25 delivery vans). These numbers become even higher when all battery and drive variants are taken into account. The most extensive BEV offer in our country is offered by the Stellantis concern. The next places were taken by Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz. The report shows that the most popular battery-electric car brands in terms of the total number of registrations in Poland are Nissan, Tesla and BMW.
– The BEV models most frequently purchased by Poles in 2022 include Tesla Model 3, Ford Mustang Mach-E and Nissan Leaf. In 2022, 18 new models of battery-electric cars appeared in the Polish offer. Importantly, the average range of the debuting passenger models exceeded 500 km, and the average maximum charging power – 150 kW. More than 30 further premieres of battery-electric cars are planned for 2023 – says Albert Kania, Senior New Mobility Manager PSPA.
When will we catch up with Europe in the electric car market?
For the needs of “Polish EV Outlook 2023”, three different scenarios for the development of the electric car market were developed by F5A experts, in variants assuming the absence, continuation or significant expansion of support programs for the e-mobility sector in Poland. The forecasts are also based on a number of different factors, such as EU, national and local legal regulations, leading trends in the automotive sector (also in the battery area), technology development, implementation of low emission zones, and ongoing changes in consumer habits. Circumstances that negatively impact market development were also taken into account, including high levels of inflation, supply chain disruptions in the automotive sector, and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
– In the forecast presented in the previous issue of “Polish EV Outlook”, we managed to predict with almost 100% accuracy the number of newly registered battery-electric cars at the end of 2022. In the realistic scenario, our estimate differed from the actual result by only 85 units. The margin of error was approx. 0.5%. We hope that the numbers included in the forecasts presented in “Polish EV Outlook 2023” will also be as close as possible to the final result in the e-mobility segment that we will record in Poland in 2023. In the following years, the Polish e-mobility sector will definitely accelerate. We assume that by 2030, the total number of newly registered (from the domestic market and imported) battery-electric cars (passenger cars and delivery vans) in Poland will increase to almost 170,000 units. A similar level of registration of new passenger BEVs as in Belgium, Spain, whether in Italy in 2022 we will achieve in 2024, while we will approach last year’s result in the Netherlands in 2025 – says Maciej Mazur, Managing Director of PSPA.
The most comprehensive analysis of the electromobility sector in Poland
Besides data on the passenger car and commercial vehicle market prepared by F5A, the content of “Polish EV Outlook 2023” also includes the first forecast in Poland of the development of the zero-emission heavy road transport market. Readers of the report can find out what factors are key to accelerating the pace of electrification of truck fleets in Poland and what number of eHDVs will be on Polish roads by 2040. The first edition of “PEVO 2023” also includes a comprehensive analysis of the charging infrastructure network in Poland and forecasts for its expansion included in two variant scenarios. The new edition of the cyclical report contains, among others, data unavailable in any other study on the level of use of charging stations and the most important market trends, collected on the basis of in-depth interviews with leading operators of public charger networks. The report also describes in detail the recent changes in legal regulations shaping the Polish electromobility market.
More information about “Polish EV Outlook 2023”, as well as the possibility of ordering the report, is available on the website:
–
